by Gerald A. Honigman
An Iranian professor who teaches at a local major
university and I have become good friends. I had earlier been invited to speak
at his institution, where numerous students from the Middle East attend
classes.
We have been discussing the recent events going on
in his native land--events which especially pose a very harsh dilemma for
Israel. Indeed, things happening in Iran right now make Israel's choices
only that much more difficult...
While the courage of millions of Iranians (with
tens of thousands taking to the streets despite brutal repression) may
eventually lead to the collapse of the current the regime, the
latter still has enough support with the folks with the weapons--who have a
stake in the Islamic Republic--to also make that possibility very "iffy" as
well. So, if Israel waits it out--hoping for an internal solution--who knows
when or if that might even occur?
Meantime, Iran is getting closer than ever to
becoming a nuclear power--with Israel as its primary target--and openly stated
as such. When folks repeatedly and openly speak in terms of another final
solution, Jews (many, at least) take them very seriously.
What especially complicates matters is that if
Ahmadinejad and the Mullahs think they're going to collapse via an internal
revolt and they have become a nuclear power--or even if they "just"
have numerous biologically and chemically-tipped missiles (which they surely
have...those other weapons of mass destruction that Iraqi Arabs already
used on Kurds and probably also on Iranians during their war primarily over
Iran's Khuzestan/"Arabistan" province's oil in the '80s)--they will very
likely launch their strike against Israel before they collapse to help
bring about their deeply rooted Shi'a belief that the chaos that will
next ensue will, at long last ( after the massive Israeli retaliation, and so
forth), bring their Hidden Imam--the Mahdi--out of hiding, ushering in
their own version of the Christian Armeggedon (from the Hebrew, Har
Megiddo) and the return of their own Shi'a Messiah.
Now, Iran is a big country with about 73 million
people. Geographically, about seventy-five Israels would fit into Iran, and the
former's population is about one tenth of the latter's.
The Mullahs have already shown they are willing to
sacrifice millions of their own people for their cause--as displayed when young
boys were used as living mine detectors and such in fighting Saddam's then
Sunni Arab-controlled Iraq.
Waiting, thus, is far more dangerous for Israel
than many other folks realize or give a hoot about. Some --myself, for
example--could make a good argument showing that Israel has already grossly
endangered itself by caving in to outside pressure to not striking earlier while
the targeting would have been easier, etc., and so forth.
While no one wants to see innocents on either
side die as a result of the Mullahs' deadly, genocidal games, Israel
can't afford to take a first hit for both geographic and
demographic reasons described above.
Iran will survive a retaliation by the Jewish
State--especially because the latter (unlike all of its Arab and Iranian
enemies) will try its very best to zero in on military and political
targets.
On the other hand, Iran will try its very best to
destroy the entire Jewish State and will primarily and deliberately target
Jewish population centers...as their Arab soul mates--when it comes to this
subject, at least--do.
Alright, my friends. Each of you is now the
Prime Minister of Israel. Recall that in 1938, Czechoslovakia was sold out in
Munich by its "friends" for an alleged "peace for our time." The world was soon
at war anyway, because Hitler had his sights set far beyond the
Czechs' Sudetenland.
Given all of this, Mr. Prime Minister, now
decide on your course of action for your own sole, resurrected nation--one
which requires a magnifying glass to find it on a world globe.